Quote of the Day
- September 2nd, 2010
- By Doug McKay
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Every man dies. Not every man really lives.
- William Wallace
Every man dies. Not every man really lives.
- William Wallace
As always we trade what we see (discipline) and not what we think (guessing). In other words when the market either breaks down or breaks out of this base we’ll go with it.
It remains a coin flip as of today’s close.
Bears
Technically the SPX has yet to break the neckline and confirm a high probability bearish follow through. However the bond traders are the smart money and they are signaling lower interest rates and lower equities. I viewed a chart last night of the Nikkei at its peak compared to the SPX at its peak. Amazing how similar since. This would mean equities would go much lower. But that’s not a fair comparison. Not so sure about that.
Bulls
The other side of the coin is that I haven’t seen this much pessimism since early ‘09. This tells me we have to be just as ready to push the buy button as the sell because as we know the crowd is typically late. Plus we just had the worst August since 2001.
What I Think
The market is not going to wait until November. I think it will run and run hard. 1500 points on the Dow is not out of the question. I just don’t have any idea in which direction – yet. Friday could give us more clarity.
Enjoy the balance of your week.
- Doug